argue 6

批评文章的论据:tenuous unsubstantiated unpersuasive untenable

A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. At present, the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. In addition, there is ample evidence of the popularity of jazz in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly.' Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. We therefore predict that the C Note cannot help but make money.\"

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

In this argument, the developers claims that C Note jazz club will be rather profitable in the near future after it's

constructed. Although this argument seems reasonable at fist glance, it fails to lend credible support to the claim after careful examination. The reason are stated as follows.

First of all, the arguer assumes that there's a huge local market for the jazz club. To support such assumption the arguer illustrates the statistical fact that over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer. But the arguer cannot convince me that such fact can substantiate it's assumption because it's entirely possible that Monroe is famous for it's beautiful scenery and most of the visitors of the jazz festival last year are foreigners whose intentions are some other tour sites in the city, and they just passed by to attend the jazz festival by coincidence.

In the second place, the arguer assumes that several well-known jazz musicians who live in Monroe would help C Note to attract huge amount of jazz fan for live jazz show. A possible situation is that the musicians won't hold jazz concerts where they live in but rather in some other cities or other countries, and they live here just because they can avoid the overwhelming enthusiasm from the jazz fans and live peacefully as common people in Monroe. The third reasoning flaw I want to point out is that, the arguer use the fact that through a nationwide study a jazz fan spends

1000 dollars per year on jazz entertainment to support his claim without giving any conclusive evidence to prove the insight logic connection. It's pretty obvious that the jazz fan may spend all of the money buying posters of famous jazz singers or musicians, or buying instruments to play jazz music and constitute their own jazz band, and there's no evidence that any of the money could be used for tickets for jazz show in a jazz club.

In conclusion, the arguer's argument mentioned above is not based on valid evidence or sound reasoning, neither of which is dispensable for a conclusive argument. To draw a better conclusion, the arguer should reason more convincingly, cite some evidence that is more persuasive, and take every possible consideration into account.

This loan applicant claims that a jazz club in Monroe would be a profitable venture. To support this claim the applicant points out that Monroe has no other jazz clubs. He also cites various other evidence that jazz is popular among Monroe residents. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the applicant's claim.

First of all, if the demand for a live jazz club in Monroe were as great as the applicant claims, it seems that Monroe would already have one or more such clubs. The fact that the closest jazz club is 65 miles away suggests a lack of interest among Monroe residents in a local jazz club. Since the applicant has not adequately responded to this concem, his claim that the proposed club would be profitable is untenable.

The popularity of Monroe's annual jazz festival and of its nightly jazz radio show might appear to lend support to the applicant's claim. However, it is entirely possible that the vast majority of festival attendees are out-of-town visitors. Moreover, the author provides no

evidence that radio listeners would be interested in going out to hear live jazz. For that matter, the radio program might actually pose competition for the C-Note club, especially considering that the program airs during the evening.

Nor does the mere fact that several weU-known jazz musicians live in Monroe lend

significant support to the applicant's claim. It is entirely possible that these musicians perform elsewhere, perhaps at the club located 65 miles away. This would go a long way toward explaining why Monroe does not currently have a jazz club, and it would weaken the applicant's assertion that the C-Note would be profitable.

Finally, the nationwide study showing that the average jazz fan spends $1,000 each year on jazz entertainment would lend support to the applicant's claim only if Monroe residents typify jazz fans nationwide. However, the applicant provides no credible evidence that this is the case.

In conclusion, the loan applicant's argument is not persuasive. To bolster it he must provide clearer evidence that Monroe residents would patronize the C-Note on a regular basis. Such evidence might include the following: statistics showing that a significant number of Monroe residents attend the jazz festival each year; a survey showing that fans of Monroe's jazz radio program would go out to hear live jazz if they had the chance; and assurances from

well-known local jazz musicians that they would play at the C-Note if given the opportunity.